- The Idea Farm
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- Housel on Happiness
Housel on Happiness
+ Cliff Asness, Steve Romick, Gold & BTC, Michael Cembalest, Antti Ilmanen & More
The Idea Farm
October 05, 2025
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“When a speculator wins, he don’t stop till he loses.”
Research
AQR analyzes valuation-based models for U.S. equity return forecasts, finding dividend yields and cyclically adjusted earnings yields most useful. The study shows growth forecasts often mislead—analysts’ 12.8% long-term EPS estimates far exceed the historical 2% real growth trend.
Source: Professor Shiller’s website and AQR.
Man Group addresses five common myths about private credit, including the purported opposition between banks and non-bank lenders; the belief that private credit poses a systematic risk to the global financial system; and the claim that there is little differentiation between private credit lenders.
PitchBook, as of June 2024.
Vanguard addresses common misconceptions about index fund investing, emphasizing the potential benefits of diversification, low costs, and relative returns.
As of August 2025. Source: Vanguard.
Deutsche Bank explores whether Bitcoin can join gold as a central bank reserve asset by 2030. Deutsche Bank also argues both assets could coexist as complementary hedges amid de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainty.
As of 9/22/2025.
J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest explores AI’s outsized role in U.S. equity returns, government-backed chip investments, and China’s industrial oversupply. The report also highlights Chicago’s fiscal and crime challenges, and argues that tight net equity supply since 2011 has been a key driver of market resilience.
Bonus Content
David Nadig gave a presentation on the state of the ETF industry: Cheap, Fat, Starving for Attention. Link
The 2024 CCSF Study shares a closer look at long-term returns for foundations. Link
Barclays examined the impact of changes in the level of market concentration over the last 35 years given different scenarios. Link
Stifel shared an update on the biopharma market (77 slides). Link
UBS’ Paul Donovan says the kids are alright. Link
Caroline Crenshaw, an SEC Commissioner, gave a speech on private market risks. Link
"As calls for retail investor access to private markets accelerate, I am concerned that we are headed for a high-speed collision – with main street retail investors left without airbags."
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Podcasts
 9/26/2025 - 40 minutes | Cliff Asness discusses electronic trading’s market impact, how AI is shaping investment approaches, and the current macro outlook with portfolio positioning. |
 9/26/2025 - 71 minutes | Steve Romick discusses risk management, value investing, and lessons from surviving the dot-com bubble while markets move faster than ever. |
 10/3/2025 - 71 minutes | Morgan Housel talks about money’s role in happiness, the pitfalls of comparing wealth, and why perception often outweighs reality in finance. |
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