3 T's: Tariffs, Technology, and Transition

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Research

PIMCO - Tariffs, Technology, and Transition (12 pages)

PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook highlights how tariffs, AI investment, and policy uncertainty are redefining global growth in late 2025. The firm expects slower trade and modest disinflation but sees attractive opportunities in high-quality bonds as central banks begin easing into 2026.

Morningstar - How Private Companies Are Reshaping Public Markets (18 pages)

Morningstar explores how the rise of private markets is reshaping public market dynamics and investor behavior, noting that companies staying private longer have reduced the investable public universe by 40% since 2000.

KKR - Macro State of Play (11 pages)

KKR’s Macro State of Play outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, emphasizing resilience in U.S. growth, sticky services inflation, and the early stages of a global easing cycle. The report argues that diversification across credit, infrastructure, and Asia remains critical as valuations in U.S. equities stay stretched and real yields remain historically high.

Goldman Sachs - Dollar Dominance and Dollar Depreciation — Moving on Different Tracks (16 pages)

Goldman Sachs argues the Dollar’s global dominance isn’t ending soon, but the currency looks overvalued. Slower U.S. growth, narrowing rate gaps, and stronger European and Chinese fundamentals suggest gradual Dollar depreciation, even as true de-dollarization remains limited.

Davidson Kempner - Real Estate Reset: Capitalizing on Record Dispersion (11 pages)

DKCM examines how record valuation dispersion across real estate sectors is creating a rare window for active investors. Structural shifts like higher interest rates, remote work, and cap-rate repricing have fractured correlations, allowing selective strategies in logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing to outperform as the market resets.

Meketa - Long-term treasuries in diversified portfolios (18 pages)

Meketa analyzes the role of long-term U.S. Treasuries in institutional portfolios, highlighting their value as a diversification tool and deflation hedge. While long bonds remain a potent risk mitigator, their expected real returns are low, and managing duration exposure is critical in a higher-rate regime.

Bonus Content

Goldman Sachs published the 2025 Retirement Survey & Insights Report. Link

Rick Rieder walks through 10 important market topics and how they impact positioning for today’s market. Link

Capital Group shared five charts that highlight the recovery of international stocks and factors that could help sustain a long-term rebound. Link

Apollo published an outlook for Japan and an outlook for private markets.

J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets is updated through September 30, 2025. Link

Elite universities are again stuck with illiquid assets just when they badly need cash. Link

Is buying at all time highs a good idea? Nope. It's a great idea. Link

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